Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 14.909259 18.144014 21.751806 26.050851 31.009889 36.526304 43.101364
2025-04-27 10.479319 14.712751 19.967319 26.864189 35.564152 46.055286 59.531828
2025-05-04 8.118769 12.756067 19.003711 27.808114 39.639540 54.715405 75.066080
2025-05-11 6.459463 11.214822 18.094064 28.384735 42.945217 62.329131 89.523593
2025-05-18 5.070499 9.696280 16.854819 28.167703 44.932160 68.124738 101.761924
2025-05-25 3.892491 8.210268 15.355162 27.261672 45.692792 72.114308 111.611740
2025-06-01 3.111594 7.200060 14.398189 26.980840 47.222657 77.147828 123.053868
2025-06-08 2.379584 6.087560 13.059579 25.864594 47.282654 79.933674 131.309995
2025-06-15 2.053345 5.695805 12.910024 26.675375 50.389881 87.380271 146.687094
2025-06-22 1.605355 4.918886 11.905597 25.849870 50.708187 90.511768 155.697381
2025-06-29 1.412911 4.677163 11.896103 26.795119 54.030247 98.475463 172.379842
2025-07-06 1.049548 3.895921 10.641167 25.240403 52.877962 99.175134 177.776251
2025-07-13 0.883961 3.615791 10.470519 25.887850 55.896715 107.207839 195.739370
2025-07-20 0.745555 3.369673 10.343432 26.632847 59.204842 116.004236 215.520958
2025-07-27 0.639469 3.181972 10.314513 27.566728 62.920226 125.671573 237.135696
2025-08-03 0.534938 2.952721 10.133188 28.139130 65.970511 134.330468 257.437434
2025-08-10 0.420933 2.628336 9.631017 27.923604 67.444179 140.279967 273.438823
2025-08-17 0.311035 2.248929 8.881966 27.023926 67.447124 143.571898 285.036771
2025-08-24 0.240574 1.994973 8.426519 26.745071 68.669068 149.095797 300.648498
2025-08-31 0.170049 1.677092 7.683697 25.636726 68.030900 151.120277 310.209248
2025-09-07 0.144927 1.596835 7.690374 26.441762 71.555196 161.099144 334.158508
2025-09-14 0.103421 1.366003 7.115057 25.622107 71.434001 164.120052 345.789809
2025-09-21 0.089279 1.317036 7.182213 26.560661 75.314261 175.023390 372.008923